The war is not going the way Putin expected. He expected to roll into the major cities with little to no opposition. He was planning to install a puppet government and/or absorb the entire country. He expected the West to do little to nothing. He thought the NATO alliance would diverge in its response.
None of these happened. Ukraine rebuilt its military and gained combat experience during the 8 years of fighting the Russian-backed separatists and the Russian troops in the East. Strengthened by the Western weapons and training, they have successfully fought off the first waves of the invasion. NATO and our allies have never been more united.
President Biden has outplayed Putin at every step.On top of that, the feared Russian army sent their most inexperienced soldiers into the battle. These poor kids, probably 18–19-year-olds, drafted by force, were told that this is a training exercise and that the Ukrainians will welcome them as liberators. They were ill-equipped, hungry and with neither tactical nor logistical support. Most of them did not want to be there. Many surrendered or sabotaged their own vehicles.
Still, thousands ran into ambushes and were killed. Until yesterday the Russian government did not even acknowledge any casualties on their side. It means the mothers still don’t know what happened. Putin does not care even about his own people. He cares even less about people in Ukraine.
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After the initial setback, Putin sent most of his forces into Ukraine from at least three sides.
Belarus allowed him to attack from the North, the closest route to the Ukranian capital Kyiv. Probably, you may have seen the 40-mile convoy. Most likely, the plan was to surround Kyiv and bomb it. But the convoy stalled likely due to poor logistical support, terrible road conditions and sabotage.
In the North-East, Kharkiv is surrounded. This is the 2nd largest city in Ukraine, with a population 1.5 million. The Russian forces are continuing to strike civilian areas and they seem to be using the internationally prohibited cluster munitions against civilians.
In the South-East, the Russians have finally scored their first victory by taking the first large city of Kherson. Further to the North a port city of Mariupol is surrounded. There is a risk of the best Ukrainian forces getting surrounded in the East.
Still, Putin is losing a lot of equipment and thousands of soldiers. Most surprisingly, the Ukrainian air force and anti-aircraft systems deny Russians full access to Ukrainian airspace. Putin’s mighty military looks like a paper tiger. And even if he wins, he is likely facing guerilla warfare.
You may be thinking this is mixed news or even unexpectedly good news. Maybe Ukrainians can win this thing after all. And you may be right – if the fight continues using conventional weapons and tactics.
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However, you may not know who Putin really is.You see, Putin has already lost. His economy is destroyed with sanctions. Russia is practically isolated from the world.
But he is not in touch with reality. In his mind he is a legend, a historic figure, an emperor. This is his last chance to rebuild the Russian empire. Psychologically, he cannot accept a loss.
It means that he will be using whatever means necessary to “win”. He is already bombing civilian areas and uses at least some cluster munitions in Kharkiv. But he also has thermobaric weapons that can basically level cities. He also has WMDs – chemical, biological, tactical and strategic nukes. The more successful the Ukrainian resistance is, the more likely he is to use them.But don’t take my word for it – look at what he did in Syria. There are very few red lines he did not cross.
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Which brings me to my final point.The U.S. and our NATO allies have ruled out a direct confrontation with Putin’s forces, because he has nuclear weapons, and we cannot risk WWIII.
But that is not how Putin looks at it. In his mind we are already at war with him, because of the sanctions and the weapons we send to Ukraine.If Putin intensifies its airstrikes against civilians, as I expect he will, are we going to just sit and watch it happen? What are you going to do when you see it in the news and on video?
It is possible that one of the NATO countries, perhaps the U.K., will not be able to tolerate it anymore. Experts say it would take 48 hours for NATO to destroy all Putin’s assets inside Ukraine.
If we are going to get involved anyway, then why not now? How many civilians have to die in this unjust and unprovoked war before we say “enough”?Or are we literally going to do nothing no matter what happens? Then what would prevent Putin from attacking Georgia and Moldova next? He did it before. And if he attacks a NATO country, we would be forced to get involved, nuclear weapons or not. Then why not draw the line now in Ukraine, while he is down?I urge everybody to write to your elected official and advocate a no-fly zone. Perhaps, we can start with the Western part of Ukraine, while it is still free from fighting. I believe Putin would not dare a direct confrontation with NATO.
But if I am wrong, then nothing would stop him from attacking a NATO country in the near future. He is already undermining the U.S. and Europe from within, using “active measures” on social media.
Every time we let Putin get away with something, next time he does something much worse. We did almost nothing when he invaded Georgia in 2008. We did almost nothing when he invaded Ukraine in 2014. We did almost nothing when he was bombing Syria. Why do we expect that he would stop with Ukraine?
Dmitry Abramson
